http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6080769
The Mets may be in some serious financial trouble (I don't know all the details, obviously, but it's clear that there are major problems with Wilpon), and they could become sellers at some point this season. Let's look at their sellable assets to see if any of them could help the Red Sox (or, conversely, the Yankees).
1. Johan Santana. Not the dominant Santana we've seen in years past, and won't be available to pitch until about midway through the season, but he's still a really good pitcher. Last 3 seasons: 40-25, 2.85 era, 1.18 whip. His K/9 are down from his peak years, but still, a very effective pitcher. His contract looks like this:
- 2011: 22.5m
- 2012: 24 m
- 2013: 25.5 m
- 2014: 25 m (team option, or 5.5 m buyout)
So he's not cheap either. Might the Red Sox be interested in him, midway through the season? They could deal Lackey, Beckett, or Dice-K for him, and any of those guys would actually save the Mets money. Dice-K, for example, is scheduled to make $10 million in both 2011 and 2012. That's a $20 million commitment for a guy who could be pretty productive in the NL. The Mets are currently on the hook for a minimum commitment of $77.5 million to Santana. A Dice-K for Santana deal saves the Mets some $57.5 million, and gives them a pitcher two years younger. That's a lot of money to save.
If the Sox don't do such a deal, the Yanks almost certainly would be interested. Trade Joba and Nova and something else and get Johan. As a lefty, he'd be tough on the Red Sox. He's not Cliff Lee, of course, but he's still really good.
2. Carlos Beltran. This is the last year of his contract (18.5 m). Like Santana, he's coming off an injury, and yet still put up a 109 ops+. So he's productive. He'll also be 34 years of age in April. Not a guy you want to build your team around, but a very useful player. Someone to keep an eye on halfway through the year, if the Sox suffer some injuries in the OF.
3. Jason Bay. A very disappointing 2010 season for the Mets (6 hr, 105 ops+). Not sure what happened to him, b/c he was coming off two very good seasons (214 r, 67 hr, 220 rbi, 134 ops+ those two seasons). But he fell off a cliff after getting his big contract, which still has this remaining:
- 2011-2013: 16 m per
- 2014: 17 m (vesting option, or 3 m buyout)
So again, the Mets are on the hook for a minimum of $51 million for Bay. We know Bay can play in Boston - he put up excellent numbers here and seemed to like it. But there's a reason why the Sox didn't re-sign him. I don't see them wanting to take that contract on. But you never know. Another righty power bat that's comfortable in Boston....if Drew gets injured or whatever, I wouldn't mind sticking Bay's 30 hr (assuming he gets back to his previous Boston level) right-handed bat into the lineup.
4. David Wright. A stud, pure and simple, one of the very best overall players in the game. Stats are excellent, he's just 28 years of age. His contract:
- 2011: 14 m
- 2012: 15 m
- 2013: 16 m (team option; 1 m buyout)
He's actually a bargain. The Mets, depending on their financial situation, might move him, but it is not likely, and it would take a ton to get him. Of course I'd be interested, though I'm not sure where he'd fit in. I'd figure out a way, though, to make it work if possible...the guy is tremendous. But I don't see this happening for a lot of different reasons.
5. Gary Matthews. He sucks and is making 12 m in 2011. I cannot see anyone wanting him, especially the Red Sox. Why did I include him on this list? I don't know, really.
6. Jose Reyes. Obviously an electric player, great speed, surprising power. In June he'll be 28, and he has just this one year left on his contract for $11 million. He's a free agent in 2012, and I can't imagine the Mets wanting to re-sign him given their financial situation. An obvious "trade him so you get something for him" candidate. Now, he'd be a great fit for the Yankees because Jeter is declining, but they re-signed Jeter to a 3-year deal and they have Cano at 2b, so they've got no place to put Reyes. The Red Sox, however, *do* have a spot for Reyes: SS. I know they have Scutaro, Lowrie, and Iglesias in the pipeline, but Reyes is much better than any of those guys, when the total package is considered. Imagine a package deal that looks like this:
- Sox trade NYM: Ellsbury, Iglesias, Scutaro
- NYM trade Sox: Beltran, Reyes
The Mets get a SS of the future in Iglesias, and a guy to fill the SS gap for now in Scutaro. And they get Ellsbury who can play CF for them in spacious Citi Field, replace Reyes' speed, and the deal would save the Mets some $24 million in 2011. They'd have Jacoby in arbitration for 2012 and 2013, so they'd have a few years before they'd really be worried about big money to him, and by then they'd likely have their financial house in order.
For the Sox, yeah, it's all-in for 2011 with this kind of deal, though they might be able to re-sign Reyes, because they have a lot of money coming off the books after this season (Papi, Papelbon, Drew, Varitek, Cameron). Imagine this lineup:
SS Reyes
2b Pedroia
LF Crawford
1b Gonzalez
3b Youkilis
DH Ortiz
CF Beltran
RF Drew
C Saltalamacchia
Holy cow. Then, with all that money coming off the books for 2012, let Beltran go and re-sign Reyes and Gonzalez. Payroll should end up roughly similar to what it is in 2011 (the 5 guys I mentioned above, plus Ellsbury and Scutaro, are getting $55+ million. Allocate $23 million a year to Gonzalez and $15 million to Reyes, and you still have $17 million to spend....and your starting pitching is all set and your bullpen, with Jenks, Bard, and Wheeler, is set for 2012 as well).
Reyes is young enough to be considered a building block for sure. Drew leaves in 2012 and you slide Kalish into that slot. You'd need another starting OF for 2012 though, but you have money to spend and maybe by then, one of the kids on the farm (Lin? Reddick?) is ready. You also need a DH or 3b (if Youk slides to DH).
C - Saltalamacchia
1b - Gonzalez
2b - Pedroia
3b - Youkilis
SS - Reyes
LF - Crawford
CF - ??
RF - Kalish
DH - ??
So $17 million available and two holes to fill. Should be doable.
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