Rumors are swirling about whether the Patriots, coming off a disappointing playoff game against the Jets, might pursue Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald to boost the WR corps. I am among Larry Fitzgerald's biggest fans and I'd love to have him. I'd certainly explore it if I was NE.
That said, here's what I really believe about the Patriots. They have become, over the years since their last SB victory, a pass-happy team. Now that's great and we all love the points, and when it's going well, it's darn near unstoppable. But what happens when a team like the Jets takes that away from you, or at least limits it (last 3 playoff losses the Pats' passing attack has struggled)? If you don't have a willingness and the ability to say, fine, you want us to run, we'll run the ball down your throats, then you're likely going to struggle to win the game.
I looked at the past 10 seasons and divided them up into three categories: SB-winning years (2001, 2003, 2004), non-SB-winning years (2002, 2005-2010), and non-SB-winning years with Tom Brady as the QB (2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010) - figuring that maybe we wouldn't want to "dirty" the analysis with a season of a totally different QB at the helm. I then totaled up the number of pass plays (passing attempts + sacks), pass yards (pass yds - sack yds lost), rushing plays, and rushing yards, and calculated the average number of yards per pass play and per rush play. Finally, I calculated the percentage of plays that were pass plays and run plays. I realize that some of Brady's rushing attempts and yards were due to a scramble on a pass play, but there's no way to find out which of his runs were that, so I just counted them as rushing plays.
Here's the data:
3 SB-winning seasons:
- pass plays: 1608; pass yds: 10109; yds per pass play: 6.3; 52.2% of plays
- rush plays: 1470; rush yds: 5534; yds per rush play: 3.8; 47.8% of plays
- average offensive rank (pts scored): 7.3
- average win-loss record: 13.0-3.0
7 non-SB-winning seasons:
- pass plays: 4118; pass yds: 27680; yds per pass play: 6.7; 56.1% of plays
- rush plays: 3217; rush yds: 13010; yds per rush play: 4.0; 43.9% of plays
- average offensive rank (pts scored): 6.1
- average win-loss record: 11.7-4.3
6 non-SB-winning Brady seasons:
- pass plays: 3533; pass yds: 24111; yds per pass play: 6.8; 56.6% of plays
- rush plays: 2704; rush yds: 10732; yds per rush play: 4.0; 43.4% of plays
- average offensive rank (pts scored): 5.8
- average win-loss record: 11.8-4.2
So during the regular season, we see that the three SB-winning years of the Patriots featured a more balanced attack, close to a 50-50 mix. Their yards per play - both passing and rushing - was up during their non-SB-winning years, which is something to consider. The more they passed, the better their offensive rank, so clearly, over the course of a season, against both good and bad competition, a pass-heavy offense produced results. That said, we know that huge offensive explosions can skew the overall scoring average, so in 2010, for example, putting up a 45-3 beatdown on the Jets counts the same in the win column as the 23-20 win over the Chargers, but it's a 42-point difference in their point differential (and a 22-point difference in pts per game scored). High-octane offenses will tend to have a higher points per game, but that's because blowouts (which they're more capable of) skew the numbers so much.
In the playoffs the last 10 years (19 games), here's what they've done in their wins and losses:
14 playoff wins:
- pass plays: 523; pass yds: 2994; yds per pass play: 5.7; 55.5% of plays
- rush plays: 420; rush yds: 1672; yds per rush play: 4.0; 44.5% of plays
5 playoff losses:
- pass plays: 219; pass yds: 1187; yds per pass play: 5.4; 67.2% of plays
- rush plays: 107; rush yds: 394; yds per rush play: 3.7; 32.8% of plays
Notice the severe imbalance of the Patriots' offense in their playoff losses. It's even worse over their last 3 losses (2007 SB, 2009 vs Bal, 2010 vs NYJ):
- pass plays: 148; pass yds: 620; yds per pass play: 4.2; 70.5% of plays
- rush plays: 62; rush yds: 222; yds per rush play: 3.6; 29.5% of plays
I know in the Baltimore game they got behind big early and felt like they needed to throw a lot. But did they? They were down 7-0 after Rice's huge run to start the game, and the Pats promptly threw on 2 of their 3 plays in their first possession. After Baltimore scored another TD to go up 14-0 with ten and a half minutes to go, it might seem like they needed to throw, but I submit that there was still, obviously, tons of time left in the game...WAY too early to abandon the running game. They then tried to pass 2 of their 3 plays again. They forced a Baltimore punt which may have indicated that the defense was at least getting their bearings, and then the offense promptly threw 3 of their next 4 plays, resulting in a second turnover, which led to Baltimore's third TD. Ballgame. So when they were still very much in the game, with 55 minutes to go, they decided to throw 7 of their next 10 plays, two of which resulted in turnovers.
But even if you want to argue that they were "forced" to throw by the game context, certainly that wasn't the case against the Giants or Jets. They led the Giants for most of that game until the 4th quarter. They were well within striking distance of the Jets all game long, and the Jets were *begging* the Patriots to run. Yet the stats look essentially the same:
- pass plays: 103; pass yds: 488; yds per pass play: 4.7; 70.1% of plays
- rush plays: 44; rush yds: 158; yds per rush play: 3.6; 29.9% of plays
Again, they were very pass-happy against two defenses that featured good defenses (2010 NYJ #3 vs run, #6 vs pass; 2007 NYG #8 vs run, #11 vs pass), but it's not like either team was *much* easier to pass against compared to the run.
As they have put up pinball-like scores by having a dynamic pass offense, their ability to shift gears and simply say, ok, if it's going to be challenging passing the ball today (weather, opponent, opponent's scheme, etc.), we're quite content to hammer the ball down your throat on the ground, has dwindled. They seem married to the pass. Understandable, with Brady at the helm, but essentially the Pats have become the Indianapolis Colts...able to put up huge numbers, but also very stoppable if you concentrate on defending the pass.
In the Pats SB-winning years, they ran the ball more purposefully, content to beat you on the ground if that's what was available. But recently, in the playoffs, they have not had that mentality; they've become one-dimensional on offense, and as great as Brady is, against good defenses (and the 2007 Giants, 2009 Ravens, and 2010 Jets all had good defenses) you cannot be one-dimensional. More than 70% of the plays are passing plays? Wow. Way too unbalanced.
That needs to be fixed heading into 2011. I think another quality RB is needed, but more than that, they need a paradigm shift, tactically. Their playoff success featured a willingness - even a preference? - to run the ball a lot. Their playoff failures - most of which were close games - featured almost a stubborn commitment to throw the ball at all costs.
Fitzgerald would be nice to have, but that wouldn't fix what ails the Pats. Time for a change in philosophy, in my opinion.
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